Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 12.444336 15.255622 18.389309 22.117756 26.408496 31.167201 36.818643
2025-11-16 8.254372 11.791210 16.188300 21.952023 29.196190 37.885356 48.971929
2025-11-23 5.789845 9.420807 14.359532 21.342492 30.715508 42.606682 58.548803
2025-11-30 4.589486 8.337665 13.827113 22.066540 33.693482 49.067484 70.426246
2025-12-07 3.476589 7.068867 12.731726 21.732687 35.039454 53.308015 79.504498
2025-12-14 2.771208 6.256925 12.130548 21.946739 37.045512 58.433015 89.906973
2025-12-21 2.020915 5.152711 10.842297 20.885844 36.998961 60.578808 96.212186
2025-12-28 1.681689 4.733718 10.618767 21.452964 39.391771 66.279662 107.701452
2026-01-04 1.373108 4.286617 10.256570 21.714822 41.277976 71.280683 118.350154
2026-01-11 1.139981 3.936999 10.009180 22.122158 43.387374 76.676725 129.751197
2026-01-18 0.970199 3.687813 9.911893 22.768451 45.904286 82.779509 142.399835
2026-01-25 0.745162 3.209433 9.249190 22.273678 46.424828 85.755596 150.409184
2026-02-01 0.586658 2.872360 8.864610 22.334693 48.030614 90.725826 161.993188
2026-02-08 0.448751 2.534277 8.412140 22.210963 49.309870 95.259118 173.142610
2026-02-15 0.322238 2.156316 7.770559 21.598442 49.622659 98.181953 181.834088
2026-02-22 0.269154 2.035547 7.761597 22.329366 52.475745 105.459232 197.698645
2026-03-01 0.196522 1.772060 7.300419 21.992432 53.247718 109.210824 207.978746
2026-03-08 0.152769 1.612821 7.096061 22.208467 55.094840 114.872455 221.538971
2026-03-15 0.097298 1.317889 6.392458 21.137703 54.277475 115.806168 227.294012
2026-03-22 0.078343 1.239153 6.363220 21.710112 56.834365 122.821400 243.404556
2026-03-29 0.059659 1.135540 6.220639 21.974403 58.758332 128.759191 257.858605
2026-04-05 0.046214 1.055272 6.139471 22.385508 61.010529 135.367991 273.629672
2026-04-12 0.037135 1.002715 6.148971 23.037751 63.813561 143.080878 291.490837